Nate Silver’s latest prediction that is the stuff of nightmares for Donald Trump.
Nate Silver, the statistician and polling expert with a long history of accurate predictions, has a chilling prediction for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Silver posted an article on FiveThirtyEight today, beginning with the question: “How do you predict a general election with Donald Trump?”
According to Silver:
If Trump is “unpredictable,” a phrase we heard used to describe him so often during the primaries, does that mean his chances of defeating Hillary Clinton are 50/50? If that’s what you think, you have the opportunity to make a highly profitable wager. Betting markets put Trump’s chances at only 20 percent to 25 percent instead.
In fact, despite (or perhaps because of) the unusual nature of his candidacy, the conventional wisdom holds that Trump is a fairly substantial underdog. In contrast to 2012, when there were frequent arguments over how solid President Obama’s lead in the polls was, there hasn’t been much of a conflict between “data journalists” and “traditional journalists” on this question of Trump’s chances. Nor has there been one between professionals who cover the campaign and the public; most experts expect Trump to lose, but so do most voters.
Silver goes on to note that: “Giving Trump a 20 percent or 25 percent chance of becoming president means that Clinton has a 75 percent to 80 percent chance.”
So is that reasonable. According to Silver’s prediction – yes!
Silver goes on to write that: “20 percent or 25 percent is a pretty reasonable estimate of Trump’s chances based on the polls and other empirical evidence.”
Our polls-only model has Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance.
Still, Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races.
Regarding Silver himself – Silver successfully predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states during the 2008 presidential elections and was subsequently named one of “The World’s 100 Most Influential People” by Time Magazine in 2009.
Additionally, in the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.