In what can only be termed as terrifying news, Nate Silver found that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would win.
Let that sink in. Donald Trump would WIN.
Clinton retains her lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s two other polls: the polls plus forecast and the polls only forecast. The lead is slim—a mere 3.6 points.
The electoral map on the site still gives Clinton the advantage and shows her winning the required 270 electoral votes in all three of the polling models. However, when electoral votes won by each nominee are calculated, Trump tops Clinton with 275.9 to Clinton’s 261.9.
There are plenty of people on the left who scoff at the idea of a Trump win. They’ll tell you all sorts of things, most especially that it’s the media making things look bad for Clinton in order to ramp up ratings. But Nate Silver is known for his on the mark predictions, and when he’s telling us that Clinton is in trouble, it’s something to be taken seriously.
This could all change with the debates. If Trump reverts to form without the benefit of a teleprompter, maybe the American public will wake up and realize that this man is fine as a television entertainer but not the sort of individual we want in the White House. If Hillary Clinton manages to make herself more appealing to a public that is largely suspicious of her due to the unrelenting attacks leveled at her over decades, maybe some people will finally realize that this is a woman with the experience and the temperament to lead this country and the world into this new century.
Or people could eschew the debates in favor of football and continue to say both candidates are the same, so why bother.
If you think Trump can’t win, go talk to Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Rick Perry.
The future of this country is at stake. VOTE! And whatever you do, don’t waste your precious vote on a third party candidate who will never win, but may wind up shaping our future in the worst possible way.
UPDATE 4:04PM Eastern: New polls released Monday morning caused FiveThirtyEight to recompute their “now-cast” model, giving Clinton an eight-point lead over Trump.
Hello, @FiveThirtyEight refresh button!
Looks like we'll be spending the rest of the day together! pic.twitter.com/O24749sl5w
— Eric Wolfson (@EricWolfson) September 26, 2016
Ann Werner is the author of thrillers and other things.
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