I can explain, using only two words, why America will never see a Donald Trump presidency.
There is no way – mathematically – that Donald Trump can ever receive enough votes to win the presidency.
Scores of articles have been written on the subject, detailing a panoply of complex theories as to why the bigoted billionaire will lose the November general election.
Most of my liberal and progressive friends hold the same belief – using a variety of reasons to explain exactly how and why Trump will lose.
Many of my conservative friends – tea party, Libertarian and old school Republicans – believe the same thing, believing themselves that Trump’s particular brand of arrogance, bigotry and misogyny – born from ignorance – is bad for America.
And many of these theories are based on sound reasoning and I consider most of them – if not all – to be absolutely correct. However, the reason Trump will lose is simpler than most people imagine. It is the exact same reason I had absolutely no concerns regarding a possible Romney presidency.
The reason why can be explained using only two words. And I am willing to put my reputation on the line in making this claim.
And those two words are:
Latinos and Women!
As The Observer reports: “One large trouble spot for him is among Latinos, whose votes have been crucial to delivering Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico into the Democratic column in the last two elections. Mr. Trump has enraged large sections of the Latino community with his anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the numbers demonstrate the depth of his troubles with this growing demographic.”
In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney lost Latinos by a near-record margin of 71 to 27 percent, helping President Obama narrowly carry Florida and win by healthier margins in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. An NBC news poll taken April 21 showed Ms. Clinton defeating Mr. Trump among Latinos 76 to 11 percent. Even giving Mr. Trump the remaining 13 percent—probably an unlikely scenario—he would still be three percentage points behind Mr. Romney’s dismal showing in 2012. This would not bode well for his prospects in any of these crucial states.
The Observer goes on to note that “Trump’s historic weakness with Latinos could even jeopardize his prospects in a normally reliable Republican state, Arizona, where a local poll released April 25 showed Ms. Clinton defeating him by seven percentage points in a head-to-head match-up.”
Then, as Slate recently reported: “Democrats plan to hit Trump with a fusillade of attacks from all directions. And they plan to exploit weaknesses that Republicans didn’t touch until it was too late to stop Trump. They’ll hit Trump for his open and vicious misogyny; they’ll publicize his history of racism and discrimination.”
Mirroring the dismal report by The Observer, Slate elaborates on Trump’s standing with Latinos:
Eighty-seven percent of all Latino voters have a negative view of Trump, according to a new Latino Decisions national survey. In Florida, it’s 84 percent. In other Latino heavy swing states like Colorado and Nevada, it’s 91 percent and 87 percent, respectively. If Trump loses 87 percent of Latino voters nationwide (and nothing else changes from 2012), the Democrats add North Carolina to their 2012 haul as well as 8 million more popular votes.
Noting that “There aren’t any detailed polls of blacks vis-à-vis Trump, but most national surveys show disapproval in the 80 to 90 percent range,” Slate goes on to set the final nail in Trump’s coffin, reporting that: “Trump is deeply unpopular with women, too. Seventy percent hold a negative view, according to a recent Gallup survey. If Trump loses 70 percent of women, then he’s lost, period.”
Let’s repeat that last point: “If Trump loses 70 percent of women, then he’s lost, period.”
Once again, I am willing to put my reputation on the line and predict that Trump will lose the vote of Latinos and woman by a massive margin, thus losing him the election. The fact that he will likely fare just as bad with African-American voters will be the “icing on the shit” for his failed campaign.
- Source Links – August 29, 2020
- About Pat Warde: Eulogy Tribute by Eleanor Hughes – April 1, 2019
- Editorial Note – January 15, 2019
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