George W. Bush’s top political advisor, Karl Rove has been issuing an analysis of the 2012 electoral map since April – consistently showing President Obama as the favorite to win.
In his latest analysis he shows Pres. Obama with 257 of the necessary 270 electoral votes and Mitt Romney with only 182 electoral votes and 99 votes up for grabs. That means for Romney to be able to win, he would need to capture nearly 88% of the remaining votes up for grabs to Obama’s need of only 13 votes.
According to his Rove’s site:
“Two states changed status since last week’s Electoral College map. Ohio moved from “lean Obama” to “toss-up” and New Hampshire shifted from “toss-up” to “lean Obama.” “Safe” Romney and Obama EC votes are unchanged at 108 and 172, respectively. With the changes in OH and NH, there are now nine states (85 EC votes) that “lean Obama,” five states (74 EC votes) that “lean Romney,” and six states (99 EC votes) that are “toss-up.” Keep an eye on Wisconsin. New polls moved it in Romney’s favor this week, making it likely that it will change to “toss-up” soon. NOTE: South Carolina and South Dakota have been changed to “safe Romney” status in order to get an accurate outlook of the playing field. As Joe Trippi and I discussed on Special Report last week, they are safe GOP states that have not been polled in almost a year and may not be polled in the 79 days until the election. Their Electoral College votes have been moved to previous “safe Romney” totals as well as is reflected in the map’s trend line. “
You can see his map below.
Click to see full sized
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